 
ReSent-Message-ID: 
ReSent-Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1992 16:46:22 -0500 (EST)
ReSent-From: "Jon C. Slenk" 
ReSent-To: +dist+/afs/andrew/usr/js9b/Public/camc.dl@andrew.cmu.edu
To: angst+@CMU.EDU
Subject: apocalyse musings
From: wce@hogbbs.scol.pa.us (Bill Eichman)
Comments: Validated
Message-Id: <4wHeuB3w165w@hogbbs.scol.pa.us>
Date: 	Tue, 17 Nov 1992 15:39:50 -0500
Organization: The Heart of Gold BBS, Lemont PA

>From:   Thomas_Price@kanga.fac.cs.cmu.edu
>I'm getting ready to see, in my old age, the human population crash by ~%50,
>if not more (although between now and then it'll double, and that's part
>of the problem). Let's suppose that this actually occurs, and then follow
>out the consequences. We can expect governmental instability and a lot of
>de-facto decentralization. In some states, where there are people with clues
>(like us -- I hope) the local governments will be able to keep order and
>flourish. In others, total chaos.
>Any thoughts on this scenario? Any alternative scenarioes?

Well, just to give you my thoughts on this scenario... ;-)

I tend to think of things in terms of probabilities. Even though I'm
very optomistic about the long run-- that is, the next few centuries--
I beleive there is over a 70% likelihood of serious crashes, such as you
describe above, starting I think within the next 10-12 years. There is a
hugely broad range of possibilities as far as the severity of the
crashes, and the extent.

We can always hope a few scares will shake up the leaders, and get them
to change their ways.... Thus keeping the crashes mild.

To me, it doesn't look that way. I think the bozo's in charge are so
greedy and corrupt and self-serving that they're going to run this
country and planet into the dust, then look up with a dumb smile and say
'oops', crying all the way to the swiss banks.

What I expect is what I call periods of patchwork collapse, in which the
federal government keeps an iron hand over strategically important
resources-- certain cities, power sources, roads, rivers, food-producing
regions. The feds will be so busy with these that, except for political
threats, large areas of the rest of the country will be left to fend for
themselves. As you say, in some areas local government will be strong
enough to retain acceptable safety, in some areas the local govs will
become thugs, and in other's there will be no local gov at all,
sometimes with good results, sometimes with results that will bring
somalian misery to american soil.

There's still a possibility for a cultural leap, for a move to a more
advanced and self-sustaining civilization.

I feel I'm preparing for the worst, hoping for the best, and trying to
be realistic.

>(The most far-fetched possibility is that a great religious teacher, the
>equivalent of Jesus of Nazareth or the Buddha, will begin to teach at
>that time saying "BE NICE! BE RESPONSIBLE! GET CLUES!" for the millionth

I'd say this is extremely likley....

>time and after all this suffering the aggregate of humanity will finally be
>sophisticated enough to *get* it and build a sensible, humane, decentralized
>world-governmental system.

But this is downright unlikely. That doesn't mean that we minor
prophet's are freed of the obligation to give it our best shot.

>One of the unfortunately much less far-fetched
>possibilities is  that a great religious sham, the equivalent of
>(Robert Heinlein's character George Foster of the New Revelation --
>don't think of tv preachers, they're far to stupid to function under these
>hypothetical conditions) will take advantage of the situation and create a
>fundamentalist, totalitarian organization which had political power 

This I think is a near certainty, & that it's starting now. Wether it will
be a 'cold' religious war, or a 'hot' one, is hard to say at this point.
I'm expecting an escalation of fundamentalist violence in about a year,
as they see their political power fading under clinton.

This will also be regional-- almost a secession from the union by the
bible belt, is my guess. "Ethnic Cleansing"....

>Anyway, one of the consequences of my thinking in this way is that, just
>as some others are thinking of moving to the Caribbean, I find myself
>thinking of moving to undesirable places with difficult climates, where
>the population influx cannot be expected to be so great, e.g. Maine, Alaska,
>British Columbia or Manitoba.

Well, it would be too severe for me, but if you set up a community up
there, I'll come visit it.... ;-)

No matter where we are, we're going to have to think about self-defense.
I think that self-defense is going to be a huge, huge issue, for
everyone in this country, communitarian or not.

Don't want to be too gloom and doom. There's a lot of other
possibilities, and a lot to be hopeful about. There are huge risks, but
there are also fortunes to be made, sweet lives to enjoy.

Later, Bill


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