 
To: Bill Eichman 
Cc: angst+@CMU.EDU, Thomas_Price@KANGA.FAC.CS.CMU.EDU
Subject: Re: technoapartheid 
In-Reply-To: Your message of "Sat, 21 Nov 92 05:33:52 EST."
             <6i5kuB2w165w@hogbbs.scol.pa.us> 
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 92 16:47:38 EST
Message-Id: <5538.722641658@KANGA.FAC.CS.CMU.EDU>
From: Thomas_Price@KANGA.FAC.CS.CMU.EDU


>>BRUSSELS-The new order taking shape in the world today is not the one
>>imagined by obsolete statesmen of the Cold War era-that of nation-states
>>weighing in on a new global balance of power. Rather, a high-tech
>>archipelago of affluent, hyperdeveloped city-regions is evolving amid a sea
>>of impoverished humanity. Transnational business firms, in their ceaseless
>>pursuit of new customers, are creating these networks, which bypass the
>>traditional nation-state framework.
>
>Boy, aren't mr and mrs joe blow american going to be surprised when it
>finally dawns on them that they've been pushed into a permanent
>underclass status. They'll pray and pray for their jesus to save them,
>but god, as always, looks on in benign disregard, standing behind those
>with the largest artillery.
>
>I know, I'm a hopelessly bitter cynic when it comes to this, but I have
>looked and looked for signs of hope, and I see nothing. Most people are
>astronomically, cosmically, almost infinitely _stupid_. They will try to
>kill you, or hurt you, or disenfranchise you if you try to warn them, or
>even talk openly about the dangerous future.

I spent the weekend thinking about my apocalyptic predictions based on
AIDS/overpopulation/ecosystemic degradation, and now feel better. I have
noticed the following:

	1) it is possible to surround oneself completely with detailed,
	   accurate information about the many ways in which everything
	   is going inexorably to hell.

	2) it is possible to surround oneself completely with detailed,
	   accurate information about many surprising ways in which
	   things are *working* and good ideas are being put into practice
	   and technology is being used for decentralized self-government
	   etc. etc. and there is more energy and resource material for
	   good in the world than ever before.

What to do?

Insight: the serious information from #1 up there is mostly happening
in a global scale. The serious information from #2 is mostly happening on
regional and local levels.

Conclusion: The big picture will crash, but there will be some golden
regions. We shouldn't rule out the idea of packing ourselves and all our
peers into, say, Vermont, if it looks like that state is going to make it
all right. The point I'm making is that while we're planning autonomy,
we should keep a sharp eye out for larger communities which could use our
help and can be expected to.

Now the down-side of the weekend's counsels: it was pointed out to me that
my seemingly pessimistic expectation of world population falling by 1/2 was
silly; when things break in a big enough way everything goes into free-fall.
The Mayans were brought to my attention: an empire with a basically 
technological foundation (irrigation, terracing) in which things went wrong
and the population fell 90% in two generations, followed by four hundred
years of little farming villages.

HOWEVER we'll have more hope of rebounding, as the general educational level
(literacy, etc.) will be higher and it will be much easier to save the 
knowledge necessary for advanced civilization. We'll need to rebuild the
wheels but we won't have to re-invent them. 

Of course, this is all just the best-case scenario of the worst-case
scenario. (!!??)

Tom Price

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